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AI and Taxes: How Technology Is Reshaping Financial Strategy

Artificial intelligence is transforming nearly every corner of the financial world, and tax strategy is no exception. What once required hours of manual calculations, paperwork, and guesswork can now be streamlined through intelligent systems capable of analyzing vast amounts of […]

The post AI and Taxes: How Technology Is Reshaping Financial Strategy appeared first on TechSpective.

The digital quant: instant portfolio optimization with JointFM

TL;DR

JointFM is the first AI foundation model for zero-shot joint distributional forecasting in multivariate time-series systems. By generating coherent future scenarios in milliseconds, it enables real-time portfolio decision-making without the lag of traditional numerical simulations. JointFM represents a paradigm shift in quantitative modeling: trained on an infinite stream of dynamics from synthetic stochastic differential equations (SDEs), JointFM acts as your digital quant.

Setting the stage: why quantitative modeling needs a new approach

Modeling complex systems has traditionally required a painful trade-off. Classical quant methods (like correlation copulas or coupled SDEs) offer high mathematical fidelity but are rigid, slow, and expensive. They often require specialized teams to rebuild models whenever the market regime or asset mix changes. Conversely, existing time-series foundation models offer speed and flexibility but are single-target, missing the critical cross-variable dependencies that define systemic risk.

JointFM is your digital quant to bridge this gap. Trained on an infinite stream of synthetic stochastic differential equations (SDEs), it learns the universal physics of time-series dynamics, making it truly domain-agnostic. Whether for a power grid or a stock portfolio, it predicts the full joint probability distribution of the system in milliseconds. This is the foundation of instant decision-making in highly complex setups and is fast enough to integrate with agents for ad-hoc business decisions.

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Figure 1: JointFM is your digital quant, pre-trained with dynamics from synthetic quantitative models.

In this project, we demonstrate its power in quantitative finance, building on NVIDIA’s quantitative portfolio optimization blueprint. JointFM enables instant portfolio optimization (IPO), replacing brittle overnight batch processes with a digital quant that can rebalance portfolios in real time and adapt to new assets or market conditions without retraining.

Key takeaways 

  • The first zero-shot foundation model for joint distributions: JointFM predicts full multivariate distributions out of the box, capturing correlations and tail risk.
  • Instant simulation at portfolio scale: thousands of coherent future scenarios are generated in milliseconds, independent of portfolio complexity, enabling real-time decision-making and AI agent integration.
  • Matches the risk-adjusted returns of the classical benchmark: across 200 controlled synthetic trials, JointFM achieved equal risk-adjusted performance.
  • Pre-trained on synthetic stochastic processes: by learning from millions of generated dynamics, JointFM generalizes to new assets and market conditions without retraining.
  • From financial modeling to financial AI: JointFM replaces classical pipelines with a scalable, domain-agnostic foundation model.

The core challenge: speed, fidelity, and flexibility

In quantitative finance, portfolio managers have long faced a customized trilemma:

  1. Fast but flawed: models like Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) are computationally cheap but assume normal distributions and constant correlations. They fail spectacularly during market crashes, when assets become highly correlated and fat tails appear.
  2. Accurate but slow: heavy Monte Carlo simulations with complex copulas or regime-switching variations capture reality better but take much longer to calibrate and run, making them impractical when you need to rebalance your portfolio on short notice.
  3. Rigid and expensive: developing high-fidelity models requires specialized quantitative modeling teams, significant time, and money. Worse, these models are often brittle; when the market regime shifts or you want to swap asset classes, you often need to start modeling again from scratch.

Enter JointFM: a foundation model for joint distributions

JointFM changes the game by “skipping” the modeling step. Instead of fitting parameters for each time series daily, JointFM is a pre-trained model that generalizes to unseen data out of the box. While we apply it here to financial markets, the model itself is domain-agnostic. It learns the language of stochastic processes, not just stock tickers.

The innovation

Until now, modeling joint distributions required significant compromises. You could define complex systems of SDEs (mathematically difficult), fit specialized classical models to specific datasets (slow and requiring retraining), or use copulas (bespoke and rigid). 

None of these are zero-shot

On the other hand, existing foundation models are zero-shot but fail to capture cross-variable dependencies. JointFM is the first to bridge this divide, offering the scale and zero-shot speed of a foundation model with the mathematical depth of a rigorous joint probability framework.

This zero-shot capability solves the rigidity problem. Facing a new market situation where you don’t know the underlying dynamics? Want to swap difficult-to-model assets instantly? JointFM works just the same. Because it has learned to predict future joint distributions from almost any dynamic during its diverse pre-training, it serves as the best possible starting point for unknown environments without the need for a dedicated quant team to build a new model from scratch.

Key capabilities

  • Joint distributional forecasting: unlike standard univariate time-series models that predict marginal probabilities for one variable at a time, JointFM explicitly models the full multivariate distribution of all variables simultaneously. In finance, this is critical for diversification. You cannot optimize a portfolio without understanding how assets move together.
  • Zero-shot inference: no training required on the user’s data. The model has already “seen it all” during pre-training.
  • Scenario slicing: the model can condition predictions on exogenous variables (e.g., “Show me the distribution of variables if an external factor rises”).

If you want to read more about time-series and tabular foundation models, have a look at this article on the brewing GenAI data science revolution, which gives an introduction to the field and explains why a model like JointFM is the next logical step.

Under the hood: architecture & speed

JointFM leverages a specialized transformer-based architecture designed to handle the unique high-dimensional constraints of multivariate time series.

1. Efficient high-dimensional context

To model portfolios with many assets over long history windows, JointFM moves beyond the quadratic complexity of standard attention mechanisms. Like other single-target models, JointFM employs a factored attention strategy that efficiently decouples temporal dynamics from cross-variable dependencies. This allows the model to scale linearly with the complexity of the portfolio, processing hundreds of assets without becoming a computational bottleneck.

2. Heavy-tailed distributional heads

Real-world data is rarely normal; it often exhibits heavy tails and skewness. JointFM utilizes a flexible output layer capable of parameterizing robust, fat-tailed multivariate distributions. This enables the model to naturally capture the probability of extreme events (“black swans”) that are critical for accurate risk assessment.

3. Parallel decoding for instant results

Speed is the central enabler of instant portfolio optimization. While also supporting an autoregressive mode, the model architecture is optimized for parallel decoding, allowing it to predict all future horizons simultaneously in a single forward pass. This capability—distinct from the slow, sequential generation of traditional autoregressive models—enables the generation of thousands of coherent market scenarios in milliseconds on a GPU.

The secret sauce: synthetic pre-training

Why does JointFM work so well on real data without seeing it? Synthetic pre-training.

Real historical data is often finite, noisy, and regime-specific. To build a truly general foundation model, JointFM is trained on an infinite curriculum of synthetic data generated by a flexible engine. We lead with finance because of its notoriously complex dynamics and its significance as a benchmark application for our work. However, while the domain is specialized, the core technology is universal.

  1. SDESampler: this is the core of the system. It generates complex stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with jumps, complex drifts, path-dependent memory, and regimes. It is designed to simulate any continuous-time system with stochastic components.
  2. FinanceSampler: to address the wide array of financial asset classes, we developed a specialized sampler that works alongside our generic engine. For the purpose of this simple benchmark comparison, we limited the selection to the most fundamental asset classes: equities, precious metals, and foreign exchange (FX).
  3. Custom extensibility: while we focused on finance, the same architecture allows us to build other samplers (e.g., for weather, energy, or sensor data) to target different domains.

This approach exposes the model to millions of regimes, ensuring it learns the fundamental physics of time-series dynamics rather than just memorizing historical patterns.

Performance evaluation: benchmarking against classical methods

We compared JointFM-optimized portfolios against classical Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM)-optimized portfolios as a simple baseline. Read about our experiment setup below, followed by the results.

Experimental setup 

Our portfolio optimization setup, while drawing inspiration from the NVIDIA blueprint, incorporates a few key differences. Similar to the blueprint, we utilize the same GBM simulation and Mean-CVaR optimization but use JointFM as an alternative scenario generator and our FinanceSampler as well as S&P 500 stock prices as input data.

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Figure 2: experiment architecture. This diagram illustrates the configuration for our primary experiment using synthetic data.
  1. Input:
    • Synthetic reality: We generate complex asset histories using the FinanceSampler (SDEs with stochastic volatility, correlated drifts, etc.). This ensures we have a ground-truth multiverse of future possibilities for objective evaluation.
    • Real data (secondary check): we also plug in real historical returns (S&P 500) to confirm the model generalizes to the noisy, imperfect real world.
  2. Inference:
    • GBM—classical SDE calibration and path generation from the NVIDIA blueprint.
    • JointFM—trained on similar but not identical synthetic physics—generates 10,000+ plausible future return scenarios in milliseconds. It effectively acts as a “future oracle” that intimately understands the statistical laws governing the assets.
  3. Risk optimization:
    • A Mean-CVaR (conditional value at risk) optimizer solves for the portfolio weights that maximize risk-adjusted returns (balancing expected return against tail risk).
  4. Execution and scoring:
    • We deploy the optimal weights into the known future:
      1. Synthetic ground-truth data provides thousands of scenarios for evaluation per experiment step.
      2. Real data has one known future for every historical experiment.

Speed: simulate the future instantly

JointFM generates scenarios in milliseconds, even orders of magnitude faster than relatively simple geometric Brownian motion (GBM) simulations.

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Figure 3: comparison of simulation time. This figure illustrates the time required for GBM simulation versus the time required for JointFM prediction, with the time being dependent on the quantity of future samples used.

This architectural advantage enables timely reactions to market changes and makes it practical to integrate sophisticated simulation and portfolio optimization directly into an AI agent. As a result, investors can explore and discuss investment decisions in real time without additional operational overhead.

Performance on marginals: looking at one asset at a time

JointFM recovers the marginal distributions of complex assets to some extent. Below we show the Q-Q (quantile-quantile) plot for each percentile and two random assets of one anecdotal simulation/prediction. 

While we clearly aim to further improve the marginal predictability, there are two things here that are critical to understand:

  1. The dynamics of financial assets are notoriously hard to predict (here 63 days ahead).  
  2. Being good at making marginal predictions alone does not help with risk management very much. It is critical to capture asset correlations as well.
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Figure 4: anecdotal performance. Q-Q plots illustrating the two modeling approaches based on marginals.

Directly comparing high-dimensional joint probability distributions is impractical. Instead, we present a simple demonstration showing that JointFM provides consistent and reliable predictions for portfolio optimization, matching or exceeding the baseline quantitative method.

Portfolio evaluation (synthetic ground truth)

To rigorously evaluate performance, we conducted 200 repeated portfolio optimization trials using synthetic data in which the true future joint distributions are known. This controlled setting allows us to directly compare JointFM-generated portfolios and our baseline against the ground-truth optimum.

The results

  • Simple returns: JointFM portfolios achieved 1.17% higher returns on average.
  • Risk-adjusted returns: the Sharpe ratio is practically the same. JointFM shows a slightly better risk-adjusted return.
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Figure 5: systematic comparison. The comparison highlights JointFM’s performance compared to GBM, assessed through simple returns (left) and risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe ratios on the right).

On the synthetic oracle data, the JointFM portfolio has a 1.17% higher return on average but at a roughly identical risk-adjusted return (Sharpe ratio), which means that the outperformance resulted from more risk-taking. Given its roughly identical performance in terms of risk-adjusted return, which is the more important metric, our first version of JointFM emerges as a fast, cheap, flexible, and simple drop-in alternative to the baseline approach.

Real-world sanity check

Addressing the potential concern that our model is only good at solving the specific synthetic problems it was trained on, we validated the approach on real S&P 500 data (Yahoo Finance). We randomly sampled 10 assets over 200 different time periods out of a universe of 391 different stocks from the S&P 500. 

The results

JointFM-portfolios, similar to their performance on the synthetic test datasets, showed a higher simple return. Their risk-adjusted return is approximately the same as the comparison, slightly outperforming it. This confirms that the model has learned generalizable rules of volatility and correlation, not just memorized a specific set of data-generating processes.

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Figure 6. S&P 500 stock price data comparison. This figure compares JointFM and GBM performance on S&P 500 data, showing simple returns (left) and risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe ratios, right).

Wrapping up: instant portfolio optimization

By replacing rigid statistical assumptions with a flexible, pre-trained foundation model, JointFM enables a new class of trading and risk management agents. These agents don’t just react to price changes; they instantly re-simulate the future multiverse to find the best path forward. JointFM significantly accelerates inference by front-loading the extensive scientific modeling into the training stage. This allows for near-instantaneous inference execution.

This represents a shift from financial modeling (fitting equations) to financial AI (using foundation models), offering both the speed required for modern markets and the depth required for survival.

Should you have any questions, please contact us at research@datarobot.com.

The post The digital quant: instant portfolio optimization with JointFM appeared first on DataRobot.

AI robot vehicles learn to team up and extinguish fires in early trial

Fighting fires could be done remotely without the need to place firefighting crews directly in potentially dangerous situations by using collaborative teams of artificial intelligence-powered robots with extinguishing equipment on board, with an initial soft trial of the technology proving successful.

Zoom Upgrades Its AI

Wildly popular video meeting service Zoom is out with another AI upgrade – this time focused on beefing-up its AI agents.

Observes writer Craig Hale: “AI Companion is included with paid Zoom Workplace accounts — or it can be added separately to other plans.”

Free users can also get a taste of Zoom’s most advanced AI features — within monthly limitations set out by the company.

In other news and analysis on AI writing:

*Writers Can Now Use Claude to Analyze Their WordPress Web Sites: WordPress has released a new “connector” to Claude AI that will enable Web masters to use the AI to analyze and manipulate data associated with their WordPress sites.

Observes writer Lucas Ropek: “After Claude is linked to an account, users can ask the chatbot all sorts of questions about the site data that it’s been given access to — from summarizing the site’s monthly Web traffic to conducting analysis of which posts have low user engagement.”

*ChatGPT-Maker Snaps-Up OpenClaw Creator as New Hire: Peter Steinberger, creator of the virally popular OpenClaw AI agent, now works for OpenAI.

OpenClaw has triggered a sensation across the AI world for its ability to work in novel, imaginative – and highly independent ways – when completing multi-step tasks.

Observes writer Duncan Riley: “OpenAI gains not only technical expertise by hiring the creator of one of the most visible open-source agent frameworks, but also credibility within a developer community.”

*OpenClaw and Similar Destined to Re-Engineer the Corporation: Highly innovative and independent AI agents like OpenClaw are destined to re-imagine how corporations are designed and run, according to writer Carl Franzen.

Expect increasing numbers of coders, for example, to give OpenClaw and similar AI agents access to corporate systems – even though security concerns that go along with OpenClaw are extremely worrisome.

Also get ready for swarms of AI agents to complete tasks – rather than just one AI agent handling a task.

Plus, don’t be surprised when voice becomes the primary interface for your computing work, Franzen adds.

*Antrhopic’s Popular AI Agent ‘Cowork’ Now Available on Windows: The Microsoft crowd now has access to the Claude Cowork AI agent, which has been wowing Mac users for the past few weeks.

One of Cowork’s key benefits is its ability to access every single file in a folder when executing an independent task that requires a number of steps.

Observes writer Michael Nunez: “The relationship between Microsoft (maker of Windows) and Anthropic has accelerated with striking speed.”

*Google’s AI Upgrade Sets New Records: Google is once again soaring to new heights with its release of Gemini 3 Deep Think, an AI reasoning engine.

Specifically, the new AI scored 84.6% on its ability to learn new skills that could be applied to new tasks.

Observes writer Michael Sutter: “A score of 84.6% is a massive leap for the industry. To put this in perspective, humans average about 60% on these visual reasoning puzzles, while previous AI models often struggled to break 20%.”

*ChatGPT-Maker Answers Google’s Gains With Some of Its Own: OpenAI’s Deep Research tool is now using the more powerful GPT-5.2 AI engine from the company, according to writer Matthias Bastian.

Some key benefits with the move:

–Deep Research can be interrupted when veering off course and redirected in a more appropriate direction

–Deep Research’s reports can be displayed as full-screen size reports

–Deep Research’s progress can be tracked in real time

*Anthropic’s Safety Chief Quits: ChatGPT key competitor Anthropic lost its safety lead last week – Mrinank Sharma — who cited difficulty with achieving what he was hired to do there.

The move dripped with irony, given that Anthropic devotes significant effort marketing itself as a “safety first” AI company.

Anthropic is the maker of Claude, one of the most popular AI chatbots on the planet.

*China’s Open-Source AI Could Upend U.S. Market: MIT Technology Review is out with a new, in-depth article warning that the rising popularity of AI created by Chinese researchers and companies could scramble the U.S.’ current dominance in AI.

China’s open-source software is incredibly attractive to many researchers and companies, given that it can be downloaded for free – and custom-tailored or improved by anyone.

Observes writer Caiwei Chen: “If these open-source AI models keep getting better, they will not just offer the cheapest options for people who want access to frontier AI capabilities — they will change where innovation happens and who sets the standards.”

*AI BIG PICTURE: How to Get the Most From AI at Your Business: Ethan Mollick, co-director of Generative AI Labs, University of Pennsylvania, advises that maximizing AI success at your business requires:

–Top-down directive

–Encouraging the rank-and-file to experiment with AI on a daily basis

-Establishing an AI lab at your company to monitor and refine what employees have come up with – and then redistribute those insights for all to use

Click here for Mollick’s in-depth game plan.

Share a Link:  Please consider sharing a link to https://RobotWritersAI.com from your blog, social media post, publication or emails. More links leading to RobotWritersAI.com helps everyone interested in AI-generated writing.

Joe Dysart is editor of RobotWritersAI.com and a tech journalist with 20+ years experience. His work has appeared in 150+ publications, including The New York Times and the Financial Times of London.

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The post Zoom Upgrades Its AI appeared first on Robot Writers AI.

Brain inspired machines are better at math than expected

Neuromorphic computers modeled after the human brain can now solve the complex equations behind physics simulations — something once thought possible only with energy-hungry supercomputers. The breakthrough could lead to powerful, low-energy supercomputers while revealing new secrets about how our brains process information.

Robot Talk Episode 144 – Robot trust in humans, with Samuele Vinanzi

Claire chatted to Samuele Vinanzi from Sheffield Hallam University about how robots can tell whether to trust or distrust people.

Samuele Vinanzi is a Senior Lecturer in Robotics and Artificial Intelligence at Sheffield Hallam University. He specializes in Cognitive Robotics: an interdisciplinary field that integrates robotics, artificial intelligence, cognitive science, and psychology to create robots that perceive, reason, and interact like humans. His research focuses on enabling social collaboration between humans and robots, particularly emotional intelligence, intention reading, and artificial trust. His recent book, “In Robots We Trust“, explores trust relationships between humans and robots.

The insect-inspired bionic eye that sees, smells and guides robots

The compound eyes of the humble fruit fly are a marvel of nature. They are wide-angle and can process visual information several times faster than the human eye. Inspired by this biological masterpiece, researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences have developed an insect-scale compound eye that can both see and smell, potentially improving how drones and robots navigate complex environments and avoid obstacles.

Power of the collective: Modular robot boosts resilience by sharing resources

EPFL roboticists have shown that when a modular robot shares power, sensing, and communication resources among its individual units, it is significantly more resistant to failure than traditional robotic systems, where the breakdown of one element often means a loss of functionality.

How can robots acquire skills through interactions with the physical world? An interview with Jiaheng Hu

One of the key challenges in building robots for household or industrial settings is the need to master the control of high-degree-of-freedom systems such as mobile manipulators. Reinforcement learning has been a promising avenue for acquiring robot control policies, however, scaling to complex systems has proved tricky. In their work SLAC: Simulation-Pretrained Latent Action Space for Whole-Body Real-World RL, Jiaheng Hu, Peter Stone and Roberto Martín-Martín introduce a method that renders real-world reinforcement learning feasible for complex embodiments. We caught up with Jiaheng to find out more.

What is the topic of the research in your paper and why is it an interesting area for study?

This paper is about how robots (in particular, household robots like mobile manipulators) can autonomously acquire skills via interacting with the physical world (i.e. real-world reinforcement learning). Reinforcement learning (RL) is a general learning framework for learning from trial-and-error interaction with an environment, and has huge potential in allowing robots to learn tasks without humans hand-engineering the solution. RL for robotics is a very exciting field, as it can open possibilities for robots to self-improve in a scalable way, towards the creation of general-purpose household robots that can assist people in our everyday lives.

What were some of the issues with previous methods that your paper was trying to address?

Previously, most of the successful applications of RL to robotics were done by training entirely in simulation, then deploying the policy in the real-world directly (i.e. zero-shot sim2real). However, such a method has big limitations: on one hand, it is not very scalable, as you need to create task-specific, high-fidelity simulation environments that highly match the real-world environment that you want to deploy the robot in, and this can often take days or months for each and every task. On the other hand, some tasks are actually very hard to simulate, as they involve deformable objects and contact-rich interactions (for example, pouring water, folding clothes, wiping whiteboard). For these tasks, the simulation is often quite different from the real world. This is where real-world RL comes into play: if we can allow a robot to learn by directly interacting with the physical world, we don’t need a simulator anymore. However, while several attempts have been made towards realizing real-world RL, it is actually a very hard problem since: 1. Sample-inefficiency: RL requires a lot of samples (i.e. interaction with the environment) to learn good behavior, which is often impossible to collect in large quantities in the real-world. 2. Safety Issues: RL requires exploration, and random exploration in the real-world is often very very dangerous. The robot can break itself and will never be able to recover from that.

Could you tell us about the method (SLAC) that you’ve introduced?

So, creating high-fidelity simulations is very hard, and directly learning in the real-world is also really hard. What should we do? The key idea of SLAC is that we can use a low-fidelity simulation environment to assist subsequent real-world RL. Specifically, SLAC implements this idea in a two-step process: in the first step, SLAC learns a latent action space in simulation via unsupervised reinforcement learning. Unsupervised RL is a technique that allows the robot to explore a given environment and learn task-agnostic behaviors. In SLAC, we design a special unsupervised RL objective that encourages these behaviors to be safe and structured.

In the second step, we treat these learned behaviors as the new action space of the robot, where the robot does real-world RL for downstream tasks such as wiping whiteboards by making decisions in this new action space. Importantly, this method allow us to circumvent the two biggest problem of real-world RL: we don’t have to worry about safety issues since the new action space is pretrained to be always safe; and we can learn in a sample-efficient way because our new action space is trained to be very structured.

The robot carrying out the task of wiping a whiteboard.

How did you go about testing and evaluating your method, and what were some of the key results?

We test our methods on a real Tiago robot – a high degrees-of-freedom, bi-manual mobile manipulation, on a series of very challenging real-world tasks, including wiping a large whiteboard, cleaning a table, and sweeping trash into a bag. These tasks are challenging from three aspects: 1. They are visuo-motor tasks that require processing of high-dimensional image information. 2. They require the whole-body motion of the robot (i.e. controlling many degrees-of-freedom at the same time), and 3. They are contact-rich, which makes it hard to simulate accurately. On all of these tasks, our method allows us to learn high-performance policies (>80% success rate) within an hour of real-world interactions. By comparison, previous methods simply cannot solve the task, and often risk breaking the robot. So to summarize, previously it was simply not possible to solve these tasks via real-world RL, and our method has made it possible.

What are your plans for future work?

I think there is still a lot more to do at the intersection of RL and robotics. My eventual goal is to create truly self-improving robots that can learn entirely by themselves without any human involvement. More recently, I’ve been interested in how we can leverage foundation models such as vision-language models (VLMs) and vision-language-action models (VLAs) to further automate the self-improvement loop.

About Jiaheng

Jiaheng Hu is a 4th-year PhD student at UT-Austin, co-advised by Prof. Peter Stone and Prof. Roberto Martín-Martín. His research interest is in Robot Learning and Reinforcement Learning, with the long-term goal of developing self-improving robots that can learn and adapt autonomously in unstructured environments. Jiaheng’s work has been published at top-tier Robotics and ML venues, including CoRL, NeurIPS, RSS, and ICRA, and has earned multiple best paper nominations and awards. During his PhD, he interned at Google DeepMind and Ai2, and is a recipient of the Two Sigma PhD Fellowship.

Read the work in full

SLAC: Simulation-Pretrained Latent Action Space for Whole-Body Real-World RL, Jiaheng Hu, Peter Stone, Roberto Martín-Martín.

Agentic AI Observability: The Foundation of Trusted Enterprise AI

Your agentic AI systems are making thousands of decisions every hour. But can you prove why they made those choices?

If the answer is anything short of a documented, reproducible explanation, you’re not experimenting with AI. Instead, you’re running unmonitored autonomy in production. And in enterprise environments where agents approve transactions, control workflows, and interact with customers, operating without visibility can create major systemic risk. 

Most enterprises deploying multi-agent systems are tracking basic metrics like latency and error rates and assuming that’s enough. 

It isn’t. 

When an agent makes a series of wrong decisions that quietly cascade through your operations, those metrics don’t even scratch the surface. 

Observability isn’t a “nice-to-have” monitoring tool for agentic AI. It’s the foundation of trusted enterprise AI. It’s the line between controlled autonomy and uncontrolled risk. It’s how builders, operators, and governors share one reality about what agents are doing, why they’re doing it, and how those choices play out across the build → operate → govern lifecycle. 

Key takeaways

  • Multi-agent systems break traditional monitoring models by introducing hidden reasoning and cross-agent causality.
  • Agentic observability captures why decisions were made, not just what happened.
  • Enterprise observability reduces risk and accelerates recovery by enabling root-cause analysis across agents.
  • Integrated observability enables compliance, security, and governance at production scale.
  • DataRobot provides a unified observability fabric across agents, environments, and workflows.

What is agentic AI observability and why does it matter?

Agentic AI observability gives you full visibility into how your multi-agent systems think, act, and coordinate. Not just what they did, but why they did it.

Monitoring what happened is just the start. Observability shows what happened and why at the application, session, decision, and tool levels. It reveals how each agent interpreted context, which tools it selected, which policies applied, and why it chose one path over another.

Enterprises often claim they trust their AI. But trust without visibility is faith, not control

Why does this matter? Because you can’t trust your AI if you can’t see the reasoning, the decision pathways, and the tool interactions driving outcomes that directly affect your customers and bottom line.

When agents are handling customer inquiries, processing financial transactions, or managing supply chain decisions, you need ironclad confidence in their behavior and visibility into the entire process, not just little individual pieces of the puzzle.

That means observability must be able to answer specific questions, every time:

  • Which agent took which action?
  • Based on what context and data?
  • Under which policy or guardrail?
  • Using which tools, with what parameters?
  • And what downstream effects did that decision trigger?

AI observability delivers those answers. It gives you defensible audit trails, accelerates debugging, and establishes (and maintains) clear performance baselines.

The practical benefits show up immediately for practitioners: faster incident resolution, reduced operational risk, and the ability to scale autonomous systems without losing control. 

When incidents occur (and they will), observability is the difference between rapid containment and serious business disruption you never saw coming.

Why legacy monitoring is no longer a viable solution

Legacy monitoring was built for an era when AI systems were predictable pipelines: input in, output out, pray your model doesn’t drift. That era is gone. Agentic systems reason, delegate, call tools, and chain their decisions across your business.

Here’s where traditional tooling collapses:

  • Silent reasoning errors that fly under the radar. Let’s say an agent hits a prompt edge case or pulls in incomplete data. It starts making confident but wrong decisions.

Your infrastructure metrics look perfect. Latency? Normal. Error codes? Clean. Model-level performance? Looks stable. But the agent is systematically making wrong choices under the hood, and you have no indication of that until it’s too late. 

  • Cascading failures that hide their origins. One forecasting agent miscalculates. Planning agents adjust. Scheduling agents compensate. Logistics agents react. 

By the time humans notice, the system is tangled in failures. Traditional tools can’t trace the failure chain back to the origin because they weren’t designed to understand multi-agent causality. You’re left playing incident whack-a-mole while the real culprit hides upstream. 

The bottom line is that legacy monitoring creates massive blind spots. AI systems operate as de facto decision-makers, use tools, and drive outcomes, but their internal behavior remains invisible to your monitoring stack. 

The more agents you deploy, the more blind spots, and the more opportunities for failures you can’t see coming. This is why observability must be designed as a first-class capability of your agentic architecture, not a retroactive fix after problems surface.

How agentic AI observability works at scale

Introducing observability for one agent is simple. Doing it across dozens of agents, multiple workflows, multiple clouds, and tightly regulated data environments? That gets harder as you scale. 

To make observability work in real enterprise settings, ground it in a simple operating model that mirrors how agentic AI systems are managed at scale: build, operate, and govern. 

Observability is what makes this lifecycle viable. Without it, building is guesswork, operating is risky, and governance is reactive. With it, teams can move confidently from creation to long-term oversight without losing control as autonomy increases. 

We think about enterprise-scale agentic AI observability in four mandatory layers: application-level, session-level, decision-level, and tool-level. Each layer answers a different question, and together they form the backbone of a production-ready observability strategy.

Application-level visibility

At the agentic application level, you’re tracking entire multi-agent workflows end to end. This means understanding how agents collaborate, where handoffs occur, and how orchestration patterns evolve over time.

This level reveals the failure points that only emerge from system-level interactions. For example, when every agent appears “healthy” in isolation, but their coordination creates bottlenecks and deadlocks. 

Think of an orchestration pattern where three agents are all waiting on each other’s outputs, or a routing policy that keeps sending complex tasks to an agent that was designed for simple triage. Application-level visibility is how you spot these patterns and redesign the architecture instead of blaming individual components.

Session-level insights

Session-level monitoring follows individual agent sessions as they navigate their workflows. This is where you capture the story of each interaction: which tasks were assigned, how they were interpreted, what resources were accessed, and how decisions moved from one step to the next.

Session-level signals reveal the patterns practitioners care about most:

  • Loops that signal misinterpretation
  • Repeated re-routing between agents
  • Escalations triggered too early or too late
  • Sessions that drift from expected task counts or timing

This granularity lets you see exactly where a workflow went off track, right down to the specific interaction, the context available at that moment, and the chain of handoffs that followed.

Decision-level reasoning capture

This is the surgical layer. You see the logic behind choices: the inputs considered, the reasoning paths explored, the options rejected, the confidence levels applied.

Instead of just knowing that “Agent X chose Action Y,” you understand the “why” behind its choice, what information influenced the decision, and how confident it was in the outcome. 

When an agent makes a wrong or unexpected choice, you shouldn’t need a war room to figure out why. Reasoning capture gives you immediate answers that are precise, reproducible, defensible. It turns vague anomalies into clear root causes instead of speculative troubleshooting.

Tool-interaction monitoring

Every API call, database query, and external interaction matters. Especially when agents trigger those calls autonomously. Tool-level monitoring surfaces the most dangerous failure modes in production AI:

  • Query parameters that drift from policy
  • Inefficient or unauthorized access patterns
  • Calls that “succeed” technically but fail semantically
  • Performance bottlenecks that poison downstream decisions

This level sheds light on performance risks and security concerns across all integration points. When an agent starts making inefficient database queries or calling APIs with suspicious parameters, tool-interaction monitoring flags it immediately. In regulated industries, this isn’t optional. It’s how you prove your AI is operating within the guardrails you’ve defined.

Best practices for agent observability in production

Proofs of concept hide problems. Production exposes them. What worked in your sandbox will collapse under real traffic, real customers, and real constraints unless your observability practices are designed for the full agent lifecycle: build → operate → govern.

Continuous evaluation

Establish clear baselines for expected agent behavior across all operational contexts. Performance metrics matter, but they’re not enough. You also need to track behavioral patterns, reasoning consistency, and decision quality over time.

Agents drift. They evolve with prompt changes, context changes, data changes, or environmental shifts. Automated scoring systems should continuously evaluate agents against your baselines, detecting behavioral drift before it impacts end users or outcomes that impact business decisions. 

“Behavioral drift” looks like:

  • A customer-support agent gradually issuing larger refunds at certain times of day
  • A planning agent becoming more conservative in its recommendations after a prompt update
  • A risk-review agent escalating fewer cases as volumes spike 

Observability should surface those shifts early, before they cause damage. Include regression testing for reasoning patterns as part of your continuous evaluation to make sure you’re not unintentionally introducing subtle decision-making errors that get worse over time.

Multi-cloud integration

Enterprise observability can’t stop at infrastructure boundaries. Whether your agents are running in AWS, Azure, on-premises data centers, or air-gapped environments, observability must provide a coherent, cross-environment picture of system health and behavior. Cross-environment tracing, which means following a single task across systems and agents, is non-negotiable if you expect to detect failures that only emerge across boundaries.

Automated incident response

Observability without response is passive, and passivity is dangerous. Your goal is minutes of recovery time, not hours or days. When observability detects anomalies, response should be swift, automatic, and driven by observability signals: 

  • Initiate rollback to known-good behavior.
  • Reroute around failing agents.
  • Contain drift before customers ever feel it.

Explainability and transparency

Executives, risk teams, and regulators need clarity, not log dumps. Observability should translate agent behavior into natural-language summaries that humans can understand.

Explainability is how you turn black-box autonomy into accountable autonomy. When regulators ask, “Why did your system approve this loan?” you should never answer with speculation. You should answer with evidence.

Organized governance frameworks

Structure your observability data around roles, responsibilities, and compliance requirements. Builders need debugging details. Operators need performance metrics. Governance teams need evidence that policies are followed, exceptions are tracked, and AI-driven decisions can be explained.

Observability operationalizes governance. Integration with enterprise governance, risk, and compliance (GRC) systems keeps observability data flowing into existing risk management processes. Policies become enforceable, exceptions become visible, and accountability becomes systemic.

Ensuring governance, compliance, and security for AI observability

Observability forms the backbone of responsible AI governance at enterprise scale. Governance tells you how agents should behave. Observability shows how they actually behave, and whether that behavior holds up under real-world pressure.

When stakeholders demand to know how decisions were made, observability provides the factual record. When something goes wrong, observability provides the forensic trail. When regulations tighten, observability is what keeps you compliant.

Consider the stakes:

  • In financial services, observability data supports fair lending investigations and algorithmic bias audits. 
  • In healthcare, it provides the decision trails required for clinical AI accountability. 
  • In government, it provides transparency in public sector AI deployment.

The security implications are equally important. Observability is your early-warning system for agent manipulation, resource misuse, and anomalous access patterns. Data masking and access controls keep sensitive information protected, even within observability systems.

AI governance defines what “good” looks like. Observability proves whether your agents are living up to it. 

Elevating enterprise trust with AI observability

You don’t earn trust by claiming your AI is safe. You earn it by showing your AI is visible, predictable, and accountable under real-world conditions.

Observability solutions turn experimental AI deployments into production infrastructure, being the difference between AI systems that require constant human oversight and ones that can reliably operate on their own.

With enterprise-grade observability in place, you get:

  • Faster time to production because you can identify, explain, and fix issues quickly, instead of arguing over them in postmortems without data to back you up
  • Lower operational risk because you detect drift and anomalies before they explode
  • Stronger compliance posture because every AI-driven decision comes with a traceable, explainable record of how it was made

DataRobot’s Agent Workforce Platform delivers this level of observability across the entire enterprise AI lifecycle. Builders get clarity. Operators get control. Governors get enforceability. And enterprises get AI that can scale without sacrificing trust.

Learn how DataRobot helps AI leaders outpace the competition.

FAQs

How is agentic AI observability different from model observability?

Agentic observability tracks reasoning chains, agent-to-agent interactions, tool calls, and orchestration patterns. This goes well beyond model-level metrics like accuracy and drift. It reveals why agents behave the way they do, creating a far richer foundation for trust and governance.

Do I need observability if I only use a few agents today?

Yes. Early observability reduces risk, establishes baselines, and prevents bottlenecks as systems expand. Without it, scaling from a few agents to dozens introduces unpredictable behavior and operational fragility.

How does observability reduce operational risk?

It surfaces anomalies before they escalate, provides root-cause visibility, and enables automated rollback or remediation. This prevents cascading failures and reduces production incidents.

Can observability work in hybrid or on-premises environments?

Modern platforms support containerized collectors, edge processing, and secure telemetry ingestion for hybrid deployments. This enables full-fidelity observability even in strict, air-gapped environments.

What’s the difference between observability and just logging everything?

Logging captures events. Observability creates understanding. Logs can tell you that an agent called a certain tool at a specific time, but observability tells you why it chose that tool, what context informed the decision, and how that choice rippled through downstream agents. When something unexpected happens, logs give you fragments to reconstruct while observability gives you the causal chain already connected.

The post Agentic AI Observability: The Foundation of Trusted Enterprise AI appeared first on DataRobot.

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